Oisín Page

Official Australian stats¹Archive versions of that page here and here. show 17.1% more deaths than expected in 2021-2022. Here’s their main graph – to which I’ve added southern hemisphere seasons.

Initially the ‘with and without Covid’ approach distracted from the key metric: all-cause deaths (red line).

But, once focused I began comparing the red line to the baseline range (light blue zone)… and recalled something my statistics lecturer in university said: the height of the curve is not as important as the total area under it.

So I found myself wondering:

• why did deaths in this particular Australian summer so greatly exceed
  1. the normal summer range and
  2. also that of the previous winter?²The chart’s language and design suggests these summer deaths are Covid related. But since when did respiratory viruses do more harm in summer than winter?!
• why are deaths this current winter so much higher than in the previous, less-vaccinated winter?!
• why are Australian all-cause deaths trending upwards and not returning to normal seasonal ranges – just like we see in:
  1. Rancourt’s USA findings
  2. Engler’s Lombardy analysis³see the final chart I included
  3. Euromomo
  4. Eurostat (I’ve highlighted baseline “0” in their graph)

Who could have seen this coming?

Stats people like Joel Smalley as it happens. In May he posted:

Dr. John Campbell went in to more detail about Australia.

Thanks to checkur6 for highlighting these stats at the end of the latest Young Hearts vid.

• 1
  Archive versions of that page here and here.
• 2
  The chart’s language and design suggests these summer deaths are Covid related. But since when did respiratory viruses do more harm in summer than winter?!
• 3
  see the final chart I included