Australia: all-cause deaths up 17.1%

Official Australian stats1Archive versions of that page here and here. show 17.1% more deaths than expected in 2021-2022. Here’s their main graph – to which I’ve added southern hemisphere seasons.

Initially the ‘with and without Covid’ approach distracted from the key metric: all-cause deaths (red line).

But, once focused I began comparing the red line to the baseline range (light blue zone)… and recalled something my statistics lecturer in university said: the height of the curve is not as important as the total area under it.

So I found myself wondering:

  • why did deaths in this particular Australian summer so greatly exceed
    1. the normal summer range and
    2. also that of the previous winter?2The chart’s language and design suggests these summer deaths are Covid related. But since when did respiratory viruses do more harm in summer than winter?!
  • why are deaths this current winter so much higher than in the previous, less-vaccinated winter?!
  • why are Australian all-cause deaths trending upwards and not returning to normal seasonal ranges – just like we see in:
    1. Rancourt’s USA findings
    2. Engler’s Lombardy analysis3see the final chart I included
    3. Euromomo
    4. Eurostat (I’ve highlighted baseline “0” in their graph)412% in August, 15% in July – slight drop but note the steady ‘moving away from baseline’ trend

Who could have seen this coming?

Stats people like Joel Smalley as it happens. In May he posted:

Australia begins to reap what it has sown. It’s grim.

Dr. John Campbell went in to more detail about Australia.

Thanks to checkur6 for highlighting these stats at the end of the latest Young Hearts vid.

  • 1
    Archive versions of that page here and here.
  • 2
    The chart’s language and design suggests these summer deaths are Covid related. But since when did respiratory viruses do more harm in summer than winter?!
  • 3
    see the final chart I included
  • 4
    12% in August, 15% in July – slight drop but note the steady ‘moving away from baseline’ trend