In his latest, stats guy Joel Smalley highlights yet another ‘black swan’ – and reminds us of two others he’s previously covered: The Amish and Palau.
This little island off the coast of the UK managed to dodge the deadliest pandemic since the “Spanish flu” completely…
Curiously though, even though allegedly representing more than 1 in 5 deaths at its peak in April 2020, COVID didn’t make a blind bit of difference to the island’s overall mortality, not even in that month…
Even more curiously, Isle of Man’s COVID death toll itself was almost four times higher after the roll out of the “vaccine” that was supposed to save everyone from a COVID death – mysteriously, only really taking off, rather unseasonably, in the middle of summer 2021, more than a year after this deadly epidemic first emerged…
I can already hear the hit piece vultures circling and chanting: it’s not peer-reviewed. No it’s not, but read it anyway and ask yourself if this study has merit. Decide for yourself. Maybe my summary can help…
… they accounted for the fact that injection status can change per individual at any time (injection time), and at each injection (event) time, that current status of the individual is compared with the current values of all others who were at risk of COVID-19 at that time.
So they collected and compared two rates: incidence rate for ‘up-to-date’ and ‘not-up-to-date’…
… the risk of getting COVID-19 is lower if you are not up-to-date (red). As time progressed (from the end of January 2023), the disparity between the two groups becomes more apparent.
The study’s authors did an excellent job of weeding out confounding variables. For example, could it be that Covid-conscious, vaccine-loving people test for Covid more often? The following chart answers this question: while the propensity to test somewhat affects the likelihood of getting a positive test, it does not explain the difference.
The authors also point out that their results are not confounded by age. However, in a disturbing finding, the female sex is associated with a 24% higher chance of a COVID infection among the vaccinated people…
Thousands of young people, including children and babies are affected
According to information released as a result of a freedom of information request (because the public health authorities wouldn’t publish it otherwise)1, there has been an explosion of serious cardiac episodes in Australia since April 2021…
… disproportionally affecting young people, with emergency department presentations for 10 to 29 year olds almost doubling over the period March 2021 to Feb 2022…
[New York Times] tried to say covid was like the plague, but worse, trust us! They were trying to make the point that in 2020 the death rate in NYC skyrocketed. Seems like they don’t want to show the data after 2020, that will look very bad for the official narrative, and will reinforce the anti-vax sentiment…
However, what really attracted me to this chart is the accidental truth about the so-called “Spanish Flu” that it revealed. Spanish Flu was supposed to be the black death bigger than the black death until the current black death came along… But seems like in reality it was not a big deal. A blip, relatively speaking in comparison to the 1850’s.
Professor Norman Fenton explains why claims of lower mortality rates for vaccinated may be just a statistical illusion. Worth reading in full. (Don’t worry; it’s not too complicated! Here’s a taste…)
In a previous article, we described the concept of survivor bias in studies that claimed better outcomes for covid vaccinated women in pregnancy: since the greatest risk to babies occur early in pregnancy, the babies of women who are vaccinated during pregnancy must already have survived the riskiest period.
In fact, a similar survivor bias more generally affects mortality rates for the vaccinated. If you see a study claiming much higher mortality rates of the ‘never vaccinated’ versus the ‘ever vaccinated’ you need to be sure it’s not just a statistical illusion due to survivor bias. This (7 minute) video provides an animated explanation:
The video shows this particular bias is avoided by using ‘person years in each vaccination category’ rather than people in each category. So a person who first gets vaccinated 6 months into a one year study and lives until the end of the year will be counted as 6 months never vaccinated and 6 months ever vaccinated.
The example is, of course, extremely simplified. Ideally, to calculate the correct number of person years in each category we need to know, for each person in the study, the exact date of each vaccination. And we also need to take account of the varying infection rate at different time intervals. That’s because the survivor bias is further exaggerated if (as was the case in most Western nations for the covid vaccines) the initial vaccine roll-out happened during the winter – meaning that fatality rates would inevitably fall anyway as more people were vaccinated. So, irrespective of the vaccine, more deaths were occuring at a time when more people were unvaccinated. Most of those classified as vaccinated would therefore already have survived the initial death peak when first vaccinated…
May 2020. John Pospichal was on the ball. Multiple graphs, multiple countries… all telling the same story… leading to obvious, penetrating questions… which politicians and mainstream media were NOT asking.
The extracts below are to encourage you to read Part 1 and Part 2 in full – because the questions make most sense in the context of the graphs.
We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases associated with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in each one.
Surprisingly, however, these increases did not begin before the lockdowns were imposed, but after. Moreover, in almost every case, they began immediately after. Often, mortality numbers were on a downward trend before suddenly reversing course after lockdowns were decreed.
This is an astonishing finding. But before I discuss its full import, and pose some questions to those who still defend the utility of lockdowns, I want to present the data that proves it…
You will notice that only after each country (or city) was locked down did the increases begin. Moreover, they began immediately, and in nearly every case, precipitously.
Now let’s examine the data for a few of these countries and cities in greater detail…
… if these vaccines were anything like as efficacious as claimed, dosing them into 70%+ of populations (and 90-95% of high risk of death populations) then they would be bending the covid curves like neutrons stars bend spacetime.
the effects would not be subtle…
yet we see no such signals…
the data to do the really rigorous work is being withheld from us and so, like astronomers unable to see celestial bodies, we must infer or refute their existence by watching how things curve as they travel through space and time.
but try as we might to find it, planet “vaccines stop covid deaths” does not seem to exist…
Following, are key charts, phrases and conclusions I’ve picked out. Want more step-by-step detailing? Read the full original on el gato’s substack.
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