Tag: Professor Nornam Fenton

‘Never vaccinated’ vs ‘Ever vaccinated’ mortality rate illusion

Survivor bias and how to overcome it

Professor Norman Fenton explains why claims of lower mortality rates for vaccinated may be just a statistical illusion. Worth reading in full. (Don’t worry; it’s not too complicated! Here’s a taste…)

In a previous article, we described the concept of survivor bias in studies that claimed better outcomes for covid vaccinated women in pregnancy: since the greatest risk to babies occur early in pregnancy, the babies of women who are vaccinated during pregnancy must already have survived the riskiest period.

In fact, a similar survivor bias more generally affects mortality rates for the vaccinated. If you see a study claiming much higher mortality rates of the ‘never vaccinated’ versus the ‘ever vaccinated’ you need to be sure it’s not just a statistical illusion due to survivor bias. This (7 minute) video provides an animated explanation:

The video shows this particular bias is avoided by using ‘person years in each vaccination category’ rather than people in each category. So a person who first gets vaccinated 6 months into a one year study and lives until the end of the year will be counted as 6 months never vaccinated and 6 months ever vaccinated.

The example is, of course, extremely simplified. Ideally, to calculate the correct number of person years in each category we need to know, for each person in the study, the exact date of each vaccination. And we also need to take account of the varying infection rate at different time intervals. That’s because the survivor bias is further exaggerated if (as was the case in most Western nations for the covid vaccines) the initial vaccine roll-out happened during the winter – meaning that fatality rates would inevitably fall anyway as more people were vaccinated. So, irrespective of the vaccine, more deaths were occuring at a time when more people were unvaccinated. Most of those classified as vaccinated would therefore already have survived the initial death peak when first vaccinated…

Norman Fenton

We need to talk about excess death

You don’t want to die prematurely, do you? You don’t want your friends and family to either? So, why are you ignoring the signals?

Some important things have happened this week.

One of the most important was the suspension of MP Andrew Bridgen. It’s important because, like many of us truthers over the last couple of years, he has simply become the latest victim of censorship…

… The other important thing is el gato publicly humiliating the ONS.1Office for National Statistics, UK. He has diligently re-analysed their “vaccine effectiveness” data to show that the vaccinated were already dying proportionally more than the unvaccinated up to May last year when the ONS callously stopped reporting…

… yet, when presented with the irrefutable evidence that, in the six months after the mass injection of the population with an experimental medical treatment, the excess mortality signal is at least as high as when the deadly pathogen emerged, the government and media don’t even so much as want to talk about it but they have to shut up anyone else who dares to try.

The data is only in for the first half of season 2022-23 but at 90% higher than the 2018-19 lowest early season, it’s not looking too good either, is it?

…

I am deeply saddened that the majority of people are still completely unaware of the situation we face.

I am even more saddened by the continued apathy of those who are aware but still choose to do nothing about it.

But we must persist. For the sake of our children.

I might be wrong. Andrew might be wrong. But we sure as hell won’t ever find out what’s right if we muzzle those who ask questions….

Laurence Fox can see it…

Why can’t you?

Joel Smalley

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    Office for National Statistics, UK.

COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash

The [‘Canaadian crash study’] authors are not mincing words: they found that UNvaccinated people are MORE likely to have car crashes. Based on this statistical finding, they urge people to vaccinate to avoid car crashes!

But…

Guess who is more likely to get into a car crash? That’s right, the person who drives to work daily, as opposed to a remote worker.

And…

The Unvaccinated Could not Take Trains or Fly in Canada

So they had to drive more.

Oh, one more thing…

Turns out that people over 65, who do NOT drive to work, are the ONLY group where vaccination leads to a slightly higher chance of car crashes for the vaccinated (without reaching statistical significance).

This outcome is the OPPOSITE of what happened to employed people:

So we can see that the conclusion that “unvaccinated people are more likely to be hurt in crashes” is explained by the fact that “essential workers” who drive to work were the ones choosing not to get vaccinated!

So… It is not the COVID vaccine that reduces the chances of having a crash. It is a fact that staying home with warm coffee and a laptop is safer than commuting to work or driving a truck. The effect does NOT exist in old people who do not work.

Igor Chudov

Professor Norman Fenton: “A Study In Stupidity“

Also: Dr. Claire Craig | Mr. Law, Health and Technology1Caveat: this is little more than an ad homenim piece, but does highlight a tendency toward bias among the study group.

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    Caveat: this is little more than an ad homenim piece, but does highlight a tendency toward bias among the study group.

As Bad and Biased as Feared

The BBC’s “Unvaccinated”

Participants Vicky and Nazarin were not impressed1See their interview with Sonia Poulton

Neither were The Conservative Woman writers Kathy Gyngell or Laura Perrins were not impressed

Nor The Daily Septic’s Nick Dixon or Callum from Lotus Eaters:2This clip is from Lotus Eaters podcast #442 on which page are links to related tweets and articles from public figures, participants and media outlets – some of which must surely qualify as incitement to hatred?

And 16 important flaws and issues…

… were identified by Professors Norman Fenton3Professor in Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London and Martin Neil4Professor in Computer Science and Statistics at Queen Mary University of London in their written review.5Which also features an update from Mark Dabbs, a participant

Here’s a summary:

Continue reading As Bad and Biased as Feared
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    See their interview with Sonia Poulton
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    This clip is from Lotus Eaters podcast #442 on which page are links to related tweets and articles from public figures, participants and media outlets – some of which must surely qualify as incitement to hatred?
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    Professor in Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London
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    Professor in Computer Science and Statistics at Queen Mary University of London
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    Which also features an update from Mark Dabbs, a participant

Underwear doesn’t stop a fart

But some people think a mask stops a virus.

Steve Kirsch is not one of them. So much so that he’s offering $250,000 to MIT, Harvard and Stanford Universities to produce convincing evidence.

I’d be willing to make a $250K grant to MIT if there is a MIT faculty member (you can field as MANY as you like) who can convince Professor Norman Fenton and Stephen Petty that there is scientific evidence that shows that masks reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Steve Kirsch

Cartoon by Bob Moran

The Vaccine Effects

Pandemic of the unvaccinated?

Yes, it is. Depending on how you define “vaccinated” and WHEN you record deaths.

Vaccines aren’t causing excess deaths?

No, they are not. Depending on how you define “vaccinated” and WHEN you record deaths.

Ivor Cummins explains how overall mortality and ICU usage can be made appear higher amongst “unvaccinated” people.

The Vaccine Effects – Mortality MAGICK

The Vaccine Effects – ICU MAGICK

Ivor referenced this presentation by Prof. Norman Fenton in the UK from last November. (If you want to understand the Professor’s background and approach, restart the video from the beginning. But be warned. You’ll also learn about other issues with the official data.)

Question Everything Lockdowns Summit

From the Question Everything YouTube channel:

The ‘Lockdowns Summit’ was hosted by Question Everything on the 17th July 2021 at a prestigious conference centre in London. It was the first summit to critically assess the global response to covid-19 and explore how the world can responsibly begin to live with the virus.

The summit featured a multi-disciplinary panel of 18 experts from science, social sciences, law and industry who presented a series of talks, panel discussions and open Q&A sessions to address the question ‘Is NOW the time for a better solution?’

Here is a playlist of the presentations and discussions from the day:

You’re welcome to link to or embed the summit talks, forward them to others and share these important discussions with people you know. Question Everything brings together some of the world’s most inspiring thought leaders and subject matter experts to explore solutions to some of the world’s most pressing issues. Follow QETalks on Twitter: http://twitter.com/QETalks Like QETalks on Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/questionever… Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/QETalks