What Is A Model? We need to know…

… to test between good and bad science

all models only say what they are told to say.

Models are lists of statements of the form “If this, then that”. No matter how large they grow, or how sophisticated, or how mathematical, or how computerized, or how much data that is put into them, or from what sources, their natures are not altered. They are always lists of “If this, then that.”

… Here is a simple, common, and most useful model, used by casinos the world over: “If this die has six sides, then the probability any side is up in a throw is one in six.”

That model says exactly what we want it to say, and only what we told it to say. It is an accurate model, too. It matches reality well; indeed, it makes beautiful predictions…

The model says nothing, not one thing, about what causes any side to be up on any toss. Efficient cause cannot be inferred from examining the model. No cause was built into the model. That is, none of the “If this, then that” statements (and there is only one) mentioned cause (except part of the formal cause, that the object has six sides). But the model is still good.

We conclude that models can be good and useful yet be silent on cause. The opposite is also true: a model can perform well in practice, but we cannot from that good performance conclude it has identified the cause of things. Ensuring cause has been identified is a much more difficult task…

Since all models only say what they are told to say, we can always create a model to say anything we want…

We have the freedom to specify the “If this” parts of the model, from which we sometimes can deduce, and sometimes must guess, the “Then that” parts. Or we can work backward, starting from desirable “Then that”, and picking compatible “If this” parts.

We have the freedom to say which and how much and from where the “data” goes into the model, and what “If this, then that” they are married to. We have the freedom to embrace any simplifications or approximations we want. We can, and an increasing minority even do, cheat…

This freedom comes with a cost. Since any model can be made to say anything at all, it means models can’t really be trusted until they are tested against reality.

Models certainly cannot be trusted because of the authority of who builds, or rather creates, them. That is a fallacy. And they can’t be trusted because “We need to do something and there is nothing else.” That is also a fallacy: there are always other options… [full article]

William M Briggs

Related: COVID: Lockdown Mistakes

Pandemic of the Vaccinated – Original Antigenic Sin in Covid Hamster Study

… one of the concerns with using vaccines against coronaviruses is the concept of Original Antigenic Sin (OAS). This phenomenon is where the immune system is trained on the variant in the vaccine but upon encountering a new but similar version of the virus, it responds based on its memory of the original virus rather than the new one.

So, if you were vaccinated at the beginning of the pandemic and your body was trained on the original Wuhan spike protein, the hypothesis is that when you encounter a new variant, your body produces a response against the Wuhan virus and not the new variant. This could mean you have a less effective immune response to the new variant, if any at all.

On the other hand, if your immune system is primed through natural infection, it is trained on all the different parts of the virus, not just the spike protein. You still get OAS but this time, if the spike protein has mutated into a different variant, your body will still produce an appropriate response because it will still recognise other parts of the virus that mutate much more slowly.

But this has just been theory. A group of researchers wanted to investigate whether the theory held up in practice and have recently published their report… The hamsters were given a three-dose mRNA vaccination, similar to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine used in humans. After the vaccinations, the hamsters were exposed to different variants of SARS-CoV-2.

The researchers then measured various outcomes, such as the amount of viral RNA in the hamsters and the ability of the hamsters’ immune systems to neutralize the virus.

These are the results, which I will explain below…

Naked Emperor

Full article on Substack

All-cause Death Numbers Show The Truth

Note: Rancourt’s work seems to confirm Jonathan Engler’s “Lombardy Analysis

… Dr. Reiner Fuellmich talks with scientist, social theorist, and researcher at the Ontario Civil Liberties Association and former professor of physics at the University of Ottawa Denis Rancourt…

… about the power of numbers, their creation and subsequent misuse throughout the so-called ‘Corona Pandemic’ to create fear and panic among the population. This was then used to order and implement an inhumane and unhealthy madness of measures that was subsequently responsible for an increase in disease and death rates. Based on valid data, it is clear that there were no significant increases in mortality rates in the spring of 2020, the day the global ‘pandemic’ was declared.

Denis Rancourt agrees that there would also have been no increase if governments had acted as they have in every past winter and flu season to date.

He cites the improper application of treatments in hospitals to so called ‘corona patients’ as the cause of an increase in illness and mortality rates, but also the severe adverse health consequences of the disproportionate measures taken to ultimately make people physically and psychologically ill or even, in quite a few cases, drive them to suicide.

With vivid visuals, he points out a massive and alarming explosion in excess mortality data from many countries only after mRNA injections began. He cites India and Israel as particularly affected, but also many other countries whose data he has analyzed and statistically processed…


Related: testimony to the National Citizen’s Inquiry (17th May) | DenisRancourt.ca

The Once Elusive Vaccine Debate Goes Mainstream

Key proponents of vaccines won’t debate with sceptics – tending to withdraw at the last minute.

They also seem unable to cite or defend the ‘settled science’ in courtrooms.

Could it be because…

No studies have ever compared the total health outcomes of the CDC’s vaccine schedule between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. No system is in place or body of scientific investigation in the books to assess who may be more susceptible to adverse reactions to preempt injuries…

Jefferey Jaxen

Jaxen’s article on the issue will tell you more.

Jessica Rose – PhD Computational Biologist -Talking Covid, Vaccines & more with Viva Frei Live

If you have a long journey ahead this good-humoured, wide-ranging conversation between two Canadians might help.

Covid response was never about health. PCR is not a test. VAERS soaring numbers are not because we’re injecting so many. Peer review is untrustworthy. The virus was created. Finding solutions is a priority.

People are fighting their own cognitive dissonance right now… go easy on them…

Live Q&A with VSRF Founder Steve Kirsch & Pfizer Whistleblower Melissa McAttee

Q&A with Michelle McAttee begins at 25:45… aborted foetal cell lines… deliberate withholding of info from public… Covid injections made in China… Remdesivir (aka Veklury) made by Pfizer for Gilead1which the WHO recommends AGAINST using for Covid-19

Vaccine Safety Research Foundation | How Bad Is My Batch?

US Federal Aviation Authority has very quietly tacitly admitted that the EKGs of pilots are no longer normal

On October 24, 2022, the FAA quietly, without any announcement at all, widened the EKG requirements necessary for pilots to be able to fly.

The PR (a measure of heart function)1Helpful info & graph here. used to be in the range of .12 to .2.

It is now: .12 to .3 and potentially even higher.

This is a very wide range; it accommodates people who have cardiac injury. Cardiologist Thomas Levy is appalled at this change:

We discuss his article Myocarditis: Once Rare, Now Common.

Basically, the vaccines are causing heart injury in at least 2.8% of people who get the shot. So 7M Americans now have hearts damaged by the COVID vaccine. He admits the number could be over 100M. The fact that the FAA *quietly* changed the EKG parameters for pilots suggests that the vaccine is causing a huge number of pilots to fail their screening. This is a tacit admission of a huge problem.

Swiss study of 777 people post-vaccine

Continue reading US Federal Aviation Authority has very quietly tacitly admitted that the EKGs of pilots are no longer normal

A second paper confirms the mRNA shots cause recipients to make less effective antibodies to the coronavirus over time

No one knows yet what the long-term effects of this change may be, but – spoiler alert – they probably aren’t good.

Also: what did Pfizer know and when… ?

People who have received the mRNA Covid jabs from Pfizer and Moderna have an increasingly unusual immune system response after the second shot, German researchers have found.

The new finding confirms and expands a report in December from other German researchers, who found a similar trend in people who had received a booster shot…

Continue reading A second paper confirms the mRNA shots cause recipients to make less effective antibodies to the coronavirus over time

Hindsight: what were the odds?

Age-stratified infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population

The largest burden of COVID-19 is carried by the elderly, and persons living in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable. However, 94% of the global population is younger than 70 years and 86% is younger than 60 years. The objective of this study was to accurately estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among non-elderly people in the absence of vaccination or prior infection… we identified 40 eligible national seroprevalence studies covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data…

Angelo Maria Pezzullo, Cathrine Axfors, Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis, Alexandre Apostolatos, John P.A. Ioannidis, (Jan 1, 2023)

Key numbers

AgeIFRSurvival Rate
Sourc:e: (ioannidis et al Jan 1, 2023)

The median IFR for kids is just 0.0003% so…

If your kid gets COVID, the risk is 3 in 1 million that your child will die from COVID. And that is likely an over-estimate because today all early treatment protocols are suppressed worldwide.

Steve Kirsch (referencing a previous Ioannidis study with similar findings, Oct 2022)

Covid’s Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Has Always Been Similar to the Flu

Oct 2022: Rav Arora on a prior Ioannidis study…

Continue reading Hindsight: what were the odds?

Proven again: ivermectin 72% effective in prevention of Covid-19 infection

The study conducted in 399 participants [all unvaccinated1See press release here.] met its primary efficacy endpoint with a reduction of 72% of COVID-19 infection in the group treated with daily oral administration of ivermectin compared to the placebo group 


Might this tempt Alex Berenson?

Continue reading Proven again: ivermectin 72% effective in prevention of Covid-19 infection

Dr. John Campbell: Time to pause covid mass vaccination

Pro-vax, nursing educator followed The Science actual science

So far he has not posted this on his YouTube. Probably concerned about being censored or deplatformed. Only on his Rumble channel for the moment.

Watch on Rumble


My name is John Campbell, I am a semi-retired clinical nurse, nurse lecturer, academic, researcher and author of numerous articles and two text books.

My specialisms are human physiology and pathophysiology, as applied to clinical practice. I have also produced many educational videos which are used extensively around the world.

Continue reading Dr. John Campbell: Time to pause covid mass vaccination

Plausibility But Not Science Has Dominated Public Discussions of the Covid Pandemic

Harvey Risch is physician and a Professor Emeritus of Epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health and Yale School of Medicine. His recent critique of The ScienceTM contains so many bombshells, I struggled to pick highlights. But hopefully these snippets will entice you to click through and read the whole thing.1It gets technical at times. But you don’t need to understand all the numbers to understand his points about Randomized Controlled Trials.

… plausible theories are easy to believe, and that is the problem. That is what we have been fed for almost three years of the Covid-19 pandemic. In fact though, we have been fed plausibility instead of science for much longer…

Continue reading Plausibility But Not Science Has Dominated Public Discussions of the Covid Pandemic
  • 1
    It gets technical at times. But you don’t need to understand all the numbers to understand his points about Randomized Controlled Trials.

Has Big Pharma Hijacked Evidence Based Medicine?

The double-jabbed, cardiologist and former TV pundit – whose father (also a cardiologist) died because of a COVID vaccine induced cardiac-death – has switched from countering vaccine hesitancy to warning about vaccine dangers.


  • wilfull blindness
  • public health is declining
  • overall, medical drug impact is negative
  • most research can’t be trusted
  • relative risk reduction is highlighted, absolute risk ignored1Good explanation of difference between Absolute and Relative Risk
  • ‘numbers needed to treat’ are ignored2Number of people one needs to treat to prevent one instance of an illness
  • consent is not fully informed
  • most doctors getting their info from media or pharma sources
  • papers are misreported
  • regulators are c 80% industry funded
  • serious events revealed by vaccine trials ignored
  • at least 1 in 800 are harmed
  • scientific fraud
  • raw research data not being released
  • we have been trusting the psychopath…
Watch on YouTube

What’s worse than ignorance? …

The illusion of knowledge.

Dr. Aseem Malhotra3…quoting Stephen Hawking

  • 1
    Good explanation of difference between Absolute and Relative Risk
  • 2
    Number of people one needs to treat to prevent one instance of an illness
  • 3
    …quoting Stephen Hawking